Korean GP- the aftermath

Again, the computer has been bugged up over the last few days. It appears to be definitely fixed this time though, so hopefully this blog should be back to normal.

For those of you who missed the Korean GP, Fernando Alonso won the delayed and rain-hit race from Lewis Hamilton and Felipe Massa, allowing him to take the championship lead. Both Red Bulls failed to finish the race, with Mark Webber crashing out on the 17th lap and Sebastian Vettel retiring of engine failure ten laps from the end of the race. The other title contender, Jenson Button, finished a lowly 12th, out of the points and seemingly out of contention.

The title standings with two races to go:
1. Alonso, 231 points
2. Webber, 220 points
3. Hamilton, 210 points
4. Vettel, 206 points
5. Button, 189 points

And some personal points/observations:

• In my last post, I mentioned how Fernando Alonso was beginning to look like a good bet for the title. Much as I hate to blow my own trumpet, it appears to be coming true. He's certainly got the form for it- three wins in the last four races, six podiums in the last seven. The Ferrari also looks to be a competitive force at Interlagos, the next race, so there's a good chance for Fernando to put his title rivals even more under pressure. At the same time, Felipe Massa's podium was a good way for him to bounce back from a nightmare weekend at Suzuka, and it will be him that will play the most critical role in his home race next Sunday.
• Most of the predictions of  Red Bull's dominance failed to take into account the team's unreliability, particularly in the case of Vettel. After problems with the car cost him wins in Bahrain and Australia, the engine blowup in Korea made for a sorry hat-trick, and one which has probably cost him the title. Something to think about is: had he won all three races mentioned above, he would have had the chance to wrap up the title in Brazil next week. Instead he has to come from way behind, and with team-mate Webber also in the hunt, it'll be hard to see which driver they will favour.

• As for Webber himself, his mistake was only the second retirement of the season, but simply could not have happened at a worse time. More importantly, the crash was a pretty amatuerish mistake to make, even in wet conditions, and is the sort of thing that may well knock the confidence of someone whose championship challenge has been the most based on reliability. At least he comes to Brazil knowing that he's got a good chance of winning, having done so last year.

• It was a mixed weekend for McLaren, whose car seems the slowest of the three championship contenders,but who had a lot more luck than either of the others. Although Hamilton effectively threw away his chances of victory by going off and allowing Alonso to pass him, it was inevitable he would have got through anyway, so it didn't make too much difference. Either way, second is a great result to get him back into the thick of the fight. Button, on the other hand, completely chose the wrong tyres, but even without that struggled in conditions he normally excels in. It seems extremely likely now that Jenson will be handing his title over, perhaps even in Brazil, the venue he won the title last year.
• Mercedes got the better of Renault in the battle for fourth in the constructors' championship, with Michael Schumacher again impressing in fourth- the Rainmaster loving both the Korean track and the adverse weather conditions. Team-mate Nico Rosberg was unlucky to be caught up in Webber's crash early on, as it seemed like he would be on for a decent finish as well. As for the Renaults, Kubica's fifth was somewhat disappointing after he was quick in practice, while another crash for Vitaly Petrov has marked his card even further as he goes for a race seat in 2011.
• There were also good races for BMW Sauber (8th and 9th) and Williams (7th and 10th), and a great drive from Tonio Liuzzi for Force India to take 6th, his best result of the season. The form of the team has tailed off significantly after a promising start, so it was good to see them taking decent points for the first time in quite a while.
• Finally, the first race at the Yeongnam track, still being finished as the race was being held, wasn't too bad. OK, so there may have been teething problems, like fans trying to get into the track an hour after the official race start (although the one-hour delay caused by the extremely wet conditions did aid them somewhat), but for a track that was reportedly very close to not being ready to host even a go-kart race, the organisation was good, as was the racing, although of course it may well have been different in the dry. The rain conditions, coupled with the already slippery track surface, brought good racing, but the driver's refusal to drive in the early, monsoon-like conditions may well have been right on balance, even if it did lead to questions about the finish of the race, which happened under darkening sunset conditions.

Japanese GP Predictions

Some notes from the two practice sessions:

• Red Bull are looking like the team to beat at Suzuka; not suprising really, given that the track's fast blasts really suit the car. 
• Vettel looks the faster of the pair, it seems he's able to get a lot more out of the car through the turns. Could lead to some problems through the first corner if he's partnered up with Webber at the front.
• Hamilton's crash in practice is a sign of recklessness, but it should hopefully wake him up a lot more for this weekend. This is the race where he has to win, and moreover beat all other title rivals into a cocked hat. Any mistakes this weekend would be fatal, but I doubt even Lewis can make it three in a row...
• Degner is obviously the danger spot, but then it's always been, so no real problems there.
• Everything I've said above is pretty much irrelevent, as monsoon-like rain is being reported as being present during qualifying and maybe into race day as well.

The final factor throws up some particularly interesting scenarios. Red Bull have not been particularly impressive in the wet this year, but given the dominance of the car in the dry conditions this may not have as much of an impact as it would normally. The conditions will definitely suit the McLaren drivers more, so both  Button and Hamilton have to use the conditions to their advantage. Alonso may have to throttle back somewhat, which could give a couple of other drivers a chance to get into the mix: mainly Robert Kubica, whose Renault was 3rd fastest in both practice sessions and could provide a real threat in rainy conditions.

On this basis, my predictions for qualifying are these:

1.Vettel (Red Bull)
2. Hamilton (McLaren) (7th after penalty)
3. Webber (Red Bull) (up to 2nd after Hamilton penalty)
4. Kubica (Renault) (up to 3rd)
5. Button (McLaren) (up to 4th)
6. Alonso (Ferrari) (up to 5th)
7. Massa (Ferrari) (up to 6th)
8. Sutil (Force India)
9. Petrov (Renault)
10. Rosberg (Mercedes)

EDIT: Qualifying has been postponed until 12pm Japanese time on Sunday (2am BST, 10pm Saturday EST), because of torrential rain. Lewis Hamilton has also been docked 5 places on the grid due to a change of gearbox. I have therefore changed my predictions accordingly.